Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 23 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Scheifele 46.8% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 42-19 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 84.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 96.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 95.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 91.9%
91.9%
8.1%
Pavelski
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
42
-
19
(61 meetings)
42
19
Pavelski
Scheifele
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
13
9
Pavelski
Scheifele
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
11
5
Pavelski
Scheifele
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
18
5
Pavelski
Scheifele
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
46.3% (12,036)
+7.3%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
50.2% (2,563)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
41.6% (598)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Scheifele is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,377).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Scheifele
Home
56.4% (5,998)
48.9% (7,644)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
44.7% (7,554)
By Period
Pavelski
Scheifele
P1
53.5%
48.2%
P2
55.2%
45.6%
P3
53.9%
46.8%
OT
52.3%
42.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 14:25 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:48 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:16 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 18:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 16:41 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 17:48 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 11:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 04:45 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 18:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 14:16 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |