Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.1% vs 47.8%). Scheifele wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 48.3% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 76.8%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 73.6%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 56.6%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 65.1%
34.9%
65.1%
Scheifele
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Scheifele
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Scheifele
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Scheifele
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (1,045)
48.8% (404)
-0.7%
Power Play
48.6% (181)
100.0% (1)
-51.4%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (27)
43.6% (101)
+0.8%
On power play, Carpenter has a +51.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Scheifele is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (361).
Scheifele shoots right. Carpenter is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Carpenter
Home
52.7% (630)
48.9% (274)
Away
43.5% (623)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Scheifele
Carpenter
P1
50.3%
51.9%
P2
46.8%
49.4%
P3
47.5%
41.8%
OT
36.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.1%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 06:12 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 10:26 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |