Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). McTavish wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 43.3% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 65.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 72.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 51.0%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
McTavish
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
McTavish
Bjugstad
Last 10: McTavish 5-5 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
4
6
McTavish
Bjugstad
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
0
McTavish
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (675)
49.4% (867)
-7.0%
Power Play
40.5% (42)
56.0% (25)
-15.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
40.7% (216)
+9.3%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McTavish is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (284).
McTavish shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Home / Away
McTavish
Bjugstad
Home
41.9% (372)
46.5% (480)
Away
42.8% (353)
48.9% (628)
By Period
McTavish
Bjugstad
P1
47.2%
48.7%
P2
36.2%
45.6%
P3
43.6%
49.1%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2023 | 3 | 09:07 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 2 | 14:52 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 5, 2023 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 09:17 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 3 | 06:12 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 12:22 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 12:10 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:54 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:04 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 12:49 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 06:48 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |