Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.9% vs 48.8%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.0% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 72.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 69.6%
Neutral zone
McTavish 50.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
McTavish
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
McTavish
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
McTavish
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (616)
48.9% (280)
-1.3%
Power Play
57.8% (102)
50.0% (6)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
47.2% (36)
-13.9%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McTavish shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
McTavish
Bjugstad
Home
52.2% (389)
48.4% (190)
Away
45.1% (335)
49.2% (132)
By Period
McTavish
Bjugstad
P1
50.0%
41.7%
P2
47.9%
56.6%
P3
49.0%
48.7%
OT
40.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 10:24 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:53 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:57 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |