Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.6% vs 48.4%). Look for McTavish on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.7% vs Roy 48.4% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 70.8%
Defensive zone
Roy 67.3%
Neutral zone
McTavish 55.2%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 56.1%
56.1%
43.9%
McTavish
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
McTavish
Roy
Last 10: McTavish 8-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
3
2
McTavish
Roy
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
3
0
McTavish
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McTavish
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (2,788)
48.7% (3,719)
-0.5%
Power Play
52.6% (435)
49.5% (283)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
45.5% (477)
-11.2%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. McTavish is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
McTavish shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
McTavish
Roy
Home
49.8% (1,678)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
47.4% (1,580)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
McTavish
Roy
P1
50.0%
50.8%
P2
47.8%
46.3%
P3
48.4%
48.1%
OT
43.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 08:20 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 1 | 09:34 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 16:57 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 16:49 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:16 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 11:04 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 14:12 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 06:40 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 2 | 07:24 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 1 | 11:33 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |