Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.0% vs Steel 50.6% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 71.6%
Defensive zone
Steel 56.0%
Neutral zone
McTavish 59.0%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
McTavish
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McTavish
Steel
Last 7: McTavish 2-5 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Steel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
McTavish
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
1
3
McTavish
Steel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (616)
52.5% (200)
-4.9%
Power Play
57.8% (102)
71.4% (7)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
40.0% (45)
-6.7%
On power play, Steel has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. McTavish is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (468).
McTavish shoots left. Steel is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
McTavish
Steel
Home
52.2% (389)
49.5% (109)
Away
45.1% (335)
51.7% (143)
By Period
McTavish
Steel
P1
50.0%
49.5%
P2
47.9%
47.5%
P3
49.0%
56.6%
OT
40.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 19:36 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 13:43 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 01:16 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Sam Steel |