Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.7% vs Steel 50.2% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 52.4%
Defensive zone
Steel 51.6%
Neutral zone
McTavish 52.0%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
McTavish
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
McTavish
Steel
Last 10: McTavish 4-6 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
2
4
McTavish
Steel
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
McTavish
Steel
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
4
3
McTavish
Steel
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (2,788)
50.6% (2,876)
-2.4%
Power Play
52.6% (435)
62.6% (179)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
37.4% (254)
-3.1%
On power play, Steel has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. McTavish is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,155).
McTavish shoots left. Steel is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,072).
Home / Away
McTavish
Steel
Home
49.8% (1,678)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
47.4% (1,580)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
McTavish
Steel
P1
50.0%
51.9%
P2
47.8%
49.5%
P3
48.4%
49.6%
OT
43.5%
41.9%
Final 5 min
49.7%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 19:36 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 13:43 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 01:16 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 17:15 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 07:41 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 08:13 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |