Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.0% vs Aho 50.0% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 50.4%
Defensive zone
Aho 50.4%
Neutral zone
McTavish 51.6%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
McTavish
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McTavish
Aho
Last 5: McTavish 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
McTavish
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (616)
49.9% (851)
-2.3%
Power Play
57.8% (102)
53.5% (144)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
43.3% (60)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McTavish is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (468).
McTavish shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
McTavish
Aho
Home
52.2% (389)
53.2% (554)
Away
45.1% (335)
46.5% (501)
By Period
McTavish
Aho
P1
50.0%
49.1%
P2
47.9%
50.8%
P3
49.0%
49.7%
OT
40.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
45.5%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 12:04 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:10 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:06 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |