Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.0% vs 50.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 50.0% vs Aho 50.4% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 52.4%
Defensive zone
McTavish 57.0%
Neutral zone
McTavish 52.7%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
McTavish
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McTavish
Aho
Last 5: McTavish 2-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
McTavish
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (532)
50.5% (647)
-1.8%
Power Play
59.1% (88)
54.2% (131)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
38.1% (42)
-4.8%
On power play, McTavish has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McTavish is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (403).
McTavish shoots left. Aho is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (531).
Home / Away
McTavish
Aho
Home
54.8% (303)
53.9% (445)
Away
45.5% (323)
46.4% (375)
By Period
McTavish
Aho
P1
51.5%
48.7%
P2
49.5%
51.4%
P3
49.3%
50.8%
OT
40.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
47.6%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▼
51.5%
50.0%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 12:04 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:10 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:06 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |