Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 51.5% vs Aho 53.8% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 50.5%
Defensive zone
McTavish 61.0%
Neutral zone
McTavish 63.0%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
McTavish
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
McTavish
Aho
Last 6: McTavish 0-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
McTavish
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
McTavish
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
McTavish
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (725)
51.2% (785)
+0.1%
Power Play
55.8% (113)
63.8% (213)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
57.9% (57)
-29.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McTavish is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McTavish shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
McTavish
Aho
Home
52.0% (454)
54.9% (548)
Away
51.4% (391)
53.3% (507)
By Period
McTavish
Aho
P1
51.3%
52.8%
P2
50.4%
58.9%
P3
53.3%
50.6%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
51.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 13:43 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 3 | 06:32 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 2 | 16:44 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 10:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 05:48 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 1 | 05:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |