Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.1% vs Hertl 57.1% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 83.5%
Defensive zone
McTavish 78.0%
Neutral zone
McTavish 79.4%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 80.3%
80.3%
19.7%
McTavish
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
McTavish
Hertl
Last 8: McTavish 1-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
McTavish
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
McTavish
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
0
McTavish
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (615)
58.0% (816)
-10.4%
Power Play
57.8% (102)
56.5% (260)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
62.9% (35)
-29.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McTavish is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (468).
McTavish shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
McTavish
Hertl
Home
52.3% (388)
59.7% (561)
Away
45.1% (335)
55.8% (550)
By Period
McTavish
Hertl
P1
50.2%
51.4%
P2
47.9%
64.1%
P3
49.0%
58.5%
OT
40.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
45.5%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 12:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 04:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |