Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 50.6% vs Hertl 55.4% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 73.9%
Defensive zone
McTavish 79.1%
Neutral zone
McTavish 72.0%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 75.0%
75.0%
25.0%
McTavish
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
McTavish
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
McTavish
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
McTavish
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
McTavish
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (769)
54.1% (717)
-3.0%
Power Play
50.6% (178)
61.9% (210)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
58.1% (31)
-29.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +29.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McTavish is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (665).
McTavish shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
McTavish
Hertl
Home
52.3% (461)
58.1% (492)
Away
49.2% (500)
53.6% (466)
By Period
McTavish
Hertl
P1
51.5%
57.1%
P2
54.0%
54.0%
P3
47.1%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |