Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.7% vs Hertl 54.2% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 21-14 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 81.3%
Defensive zone
McTavish 78.1%
Neutral zone
McTavish 71.8%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
McTavish
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
21
(35 meetings)
14
21
McTavish
Hertl
Last 10: McTavish 1-9 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
7
McTavish
Hertl
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
8
McTavish
Hertl
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
8
6
McTavish
Hertl
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (2,788)
53.8% (8,268)
-5.6%
Power Play
52.6% (435)
59.3% (1,975)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
46.3% (806)
-12.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McTavish is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,155).
McTavish shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
McTavish
Hertl
Home
49.8% (1,678)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
47.4% (1,580)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
McTavish
Hertl
P1
50.0%
53.6%
P2
47.8%
54.1%
P3
48.4%
55.3%
OT
43.5%
46.5%
Final 5 min
49.7%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 12:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 04:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 06:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:30 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 06:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 10:13 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |