Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). McTavish wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 43.3% vs Hertl 54.5% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 64.0%
Defensive zone
McTavish 79.9%
Neutral zone
McTavish 76.5%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 75.2%
75.2%
24.8%
McTavish
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
McTavish
Hertl
Last 10: McTavish 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
McTavish
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
McTavish
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
McTavish
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (675)
54.1% (1,117)
-11.7%
Power Play
40.5% (42)
59.8% (296)
-19.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
34.4% (32)
+15.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McTavish is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McTavish shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
McTavish
Hertl
Home
41.9% (372)
54.3% (709)
Away
42.8% (353)
55.3% (736)
By Period
McTavish
Hertl
P1
47.2%
51.6%
P2
36.2%
53.6%
P3
43.6%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
44.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:22 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 04:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 09:49 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 04:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 14:15 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 04:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 00:38 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 19:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 15:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |