Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Jost on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McTavish wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 43.3% vs Jost 40.8% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jost 63.7%
Defensive zone
Jost 63.7%
Neutral zone
Jost 60.0%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
McTavish
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McTavish
Jost
Last 7: McTavish 2-5 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
2
McTavish
Jost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jost
2
3
McTavish
Jost
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (675)
41.8% (388)
+0.6%
Power Play
40.5% (42)
0.0% (3)
+40.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
21.7% (60)
+28.3%
On power play, McTavish has a +40.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. McTavish is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McTavish shoots left. Jost is 38.5% vs left-shot opponents (283).
Home / Away
McTavish
Jost
Home
41.9% (372)
42.6% (230)
Away
42.8% (353)
34.8% (221)
By Period
McTavish
Jost
P1
47.2%
43.2%
P2
36.2%
38.2%
P3
43.6%
34.6%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
38.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 16:17 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 15:58 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 06:02 | Offensive | Tyson Jost |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 05:30 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 02:12 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |