Scouting Report
Adrian Kempe holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 43.5% vs Barzal 42.8% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 51.6%
Defensive zone
Barzal 56.4%
Neutral zone
Kempe 50.0%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Kempe
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kempe
Barzal
Last 6: Kempe 4-2 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
1
Kempe
Barzal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Kempe
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
0
Kempe
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
42.6% (671)
41.9% (516)
+0.7%
Power Play
42.0% (50)
40.0% (60)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
25.0% (4)
+19.4%
On penalty kill, Kempe has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Kempe is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (252).
Kempe shoots left. Barzal is 38.1% vs left-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Kempe
Barzal
Home
43.6% (369)
46.9% (303)
Away
41.6% (370)
35.7% (277)
By Period
Kempe
Barzal
P1
40.0%
39.9%
P2
44.3%
45.1%
P3
43.6%
39.9%
OT
37.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.6%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
42.6%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 17:08 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 04:25 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 08:11 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 14:56 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |