Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 60.7% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.8% vs Barzal 42.9% (+15.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 95.3%
Defensive zone
Toews 88.0%
Neutral zone
Toews 93.1%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 92.5%
92.5%
7.5%
Toews
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Toews
Barzal
Last 6: Toews 5-1 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Barzal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
Barzal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (1,014)
40.7% (514)
+15.2%
Power Play
62.8% (301)
58.3% (24)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (179)
50.0% (10)
+5.9%
On even strength, Toews has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Toews is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (591).
Toews shoots left. Barzal is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (392).
Home / Away
Toews
Barzal
Home
56.6% (709)
43.0% (279)
Away
58.0% (785)
40.1% (269)
By Period
Toews
Barzal
P1
60.4%
41.2%
P2
57.6%
46.4%
P3
54.3%
37.1%
OT
59.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.5%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.3%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 03:03 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 00:21 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 08:57 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |