Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Zibanejad 51.6% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 65.3%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 50.6%
Neutral zone
Barzal 54.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Barzal
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Barzal
Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Zibanejad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
2
Barzal
Zibanejad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
53.4% (770)
-13.0%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
46.2% (39)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
44.7% (141)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, Zibanejad has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Barzal is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Barzal shoots right. Zibanejad is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Barzal
Zibanejad
Home
38.1% (244)
49.0% (429)
Away
41.3% (264)
54.1% (521)
By Period
Barzal
Zibanejad
P1
46.6%
53.0%
P2
35.7%
51.1%
P3
37.7%
51.0%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 18:34 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |