Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Frost 50.3% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 53.5%
Defensive zone
Barzal 61.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 51.7%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Barzal
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Barzal
Frost
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Barzal
Frost
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
2
Barzal
Frost
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
49.4% (3,598)
-7.5%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
55.5% (625)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
52.8% (36)
-10.5%
On power play, Frost has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Barzal shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,477).
Home / Away
Barzal
Frost
Home
43.1% (1,895)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Barzal
Frost
P1
40.7%
50.8%
P2
44.4%
51.1%
P3
41.0%
48.5%
OT
27.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
39.9%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 05:16 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 09:37 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 14:06 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 10:31 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 13:04 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 08:22 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 2 | 01:39 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 02:37 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 1 | 14:56 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 18, 2022 | 1 | 07:20 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |