Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 47.4% vs Frost 51.1% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 57.0%
Defensive zone
Barzal 58.5%
Neutral zone
Barzal 61.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Barzal
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Barzal
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Barzal
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (52)
50.3% (825)
-8.0%
On even strength, Frost has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Barzal is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (44).
Barzal shoots right. Frost is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Home / Away
Barzal
Frost
Home
28.0% (25)
50.7% (489)
Away
55.6% (27)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Barzal
Frost
P1
47.4%
53.6%
P2
45.8%
47.8%
P3
22.2%
52.0%
Final 5 min
37.5%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.3%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 05:16 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |