Mathew Barzal vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 47.4% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 53.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 58.1%
Neutral zone
Barzal 52.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Barzal
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Barzal
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Barzal
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (52)
49.2% (1,266)
-6.9%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Barzal is 37.5% vs right-shot opponents (8).
Barzal shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Barzal
MacKinnon
Home
28.0% (25)
50.9% (740)
Away
55.6% (27)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Barzal
MacKinnon
P1
47.4%
50.9%
P2
45.8%
51.8%
P3
22.2%
47.1%
Final 5 min
37.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |