Mathew Barzal vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 38.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.7% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 51.6%
Defensive zone
Barzal 50.7%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 50.5%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (456)
47.6% (189)
-7.2%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
100.0% (2)
-65.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
29.4% (17)
-0.8%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +65.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Barzal is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (389).
Barzal shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (76).
Home / Away
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
38.0% (242)
48.5% (132)
Away
41.3% (259)
43.4% (76)
By Period
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
46.6%
51.4%
P2
35.4%
41.3%
P3
38.0%
48.5%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
39.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:59 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |