Mathew Barzal vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 53.4%
Defensive zone
Barzal 50.7%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 50.7%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
47.6% (231)
-7.2%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
83.3% (12)
-49.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
33.3% (21)
-4.7%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +49.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Barzal shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
38.1% (244)
51.2% (164)
Away
41.3% (264)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
46.6%
50.0%
P2
35.7%
46.2%
P3
37.7%
49.5%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:59 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |