Mathew Barzal vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Barzal wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Nugent-Hopkins leads 16-8 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 70.8%
Defensive zone
Barzal 69.9%
Neutral zone
Barzal 70.2%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
16
(24 meetings)
8
16
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
3
6
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
9 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
3
8
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
44.9% (8,756)
-3.0%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
50.7% (839)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
37.9% (879)
+4.4%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Barzal shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,645).
Home / Away
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
43.1% (1,895)
46.5% (5,350)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
42.9% (5,136)
By Period
Barzal
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
40.7%
45.1%
P2
44.4%
43.9%
P3
41.0%
45.3%
OT
27.6%
43.5%
Final 5 min
39.9%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:59 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:29 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 1 | 19:03 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 3 | 15:51 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 1 | 17:53 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 8, 2019 | 1 | 07:54 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 11:16 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 08:18 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 2 | 19:29 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 1 | 06:11 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 7, 2017 | 3 | 15:06 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |