Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 41.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 43.4% vs Stamkos 52.0% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 84.4%
Defensive zone
Barzal 87.4%
Neutral zone
Barzal 82.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Barzal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Barzal
Stamkos
Last 9: Barzal 1-8 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Barzal
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
4
Barzal
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (813)
51.4% (725)
-9.1%
Power Play
47.4% (19)
53.7% (123)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
61.4% (44)
+38.6%
On penalty kill, Barzal has a +38.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Barzal is 41.5% vs right-shot opponents (277).
Barzal shoots right. Stamkos is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Barzal
Stamkos
Home
44.3% (436)
53.3% (426)
Away
40.7% (398)
51.3% (466)
By Period
Barzal
Stamkos
P1
39.7%
56.6%
P2
44.3%
48.2%
P3
44.2%
52.7%
OT
33.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
39.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.6%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 12:40 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 2 | 16:22 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 1 | 00:34 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 3 | 08:04 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 16:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 01:28 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |