Mathew Barzal vs Steven Stamkos
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Barzal wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 74.9%
Defensive zone
Barzal 73.6%
Neutral zone
Barzal 73.8%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
Barzal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Barzal
Stamkos
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
4
Barzal
Stamkos
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
1
Barzal
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
5
Barzal
Stamkos
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
50.4% (9,799)
-8.5%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
55.1% (1,725)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
49.7% (825)
-7.4%
On power play, Stamkos has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Barzal is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,097).
Barzal shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Barzal
Stamkos
Home
43.1% (1,895)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Barzal
Stamkos
P1
40.7%
49.1%
P2
44.4%
52.7%
P3
41.0%
50.9%
OT
27.6%
54.3%
Final 5 min
39.9%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 03:47 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 1 | 11:40 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 2 | 05:58 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 12:40 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 2 | 16:22 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 1 | 00:34 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 3 | 08:04 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 2 | 01:07 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 16:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 18, 2017 | 1 | 01:28 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |