Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 86.7%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 64.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 79.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 64.3%
35.7%
64.3%
Barzal
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Barzal
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
56.1% (342)
-15.7%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
53.3% (92)
-19.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
62.5% (8)
-33.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +33.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Barzal is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Barzal shoots right. Stamkos is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Barzal
Stamkos
Home
38.1% (244)
53.4% (208)
Away
41.3% (264)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Barzal
Stamkos
P1
46.6%
55.6%
P2
35.7%
52.8%
P3
37.7%
59.1%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
40.5%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |