Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Barzal wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Gourde 48.2% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Barzal leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 50.3%
Defensive zone
Gourde 77.2%
Neutral zone
Gourde 69.9%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Barzal
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Barzal
Gourde
Last 10: Barzal 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
3
Barzal
Gourde
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barzal
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
4
1
Barzal
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
48.4% (4,954)
-6.5%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
57.4% (376)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
39.9% (554)
+2.4%
On power play, Gourde has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Barzal shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Barzal
Gourde
Home
43.1% (1,895)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Barzal
Gourde
P1
40.7%
49.9%
P2
44.4%
47.4%
P3
41.0%
47.5%
OT
27.6%
37.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 03:20 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 16:26 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:32 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 3 | 11:10 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 3 | 03:01 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 1 | 04:18 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 3 | 18:45 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 14:36 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 1 | 11:43 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 1 | 08:10 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 05:12 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |