Mathieu Joseph vs Michael McCarron
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Joseph wins 37.9% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Joseph 40.7% vs McCarron 52.7% (-14.6%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Joseph 85.6%
Defensive zone
McCarron 72.5%
Neutral zone
Joseph 64.9%
Result
Mathieu Joseph favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Joseph
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Joseph
McCarron
Last 10: Joseph 4-6 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Joseph
1
0
Joseph
McCarron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
2
Joseph
McCarron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
5
Joseph
McCarron
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Joseph
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
37.2% (336)
53.4% (2,901)
-16.2%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
45.3% (86)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
50.5% (463)
-2.9%
On even strength, McCarron has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Joseph is 37.9% vs right-shot opponents (145).
Joseph shoots left. McCarron is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,403).
Home / Away
Joseph
McCarron
Home
38.8% (183)
52.3% (1,696)
Away
37.6% (181)
53.3% (1,754)
By Period
Joseph
McCarron
P1
36.2%
53.9%
P2
28.8%
52.5%
P3
53.1%
52.0%
Final 5 min
43.0%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Joseph
42.0%▬
41.0%
38.2%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3 | 16:09 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 05:31 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Mathieu Joseph |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:17 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 3 | 15:42 | Offensive | Mathieu Joseph |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 2 | 01:40 | Neutral | Mathieu Joseph |
| Feb 9, 2021 | 1 | 04:43 | Neutral | Mathieu Joseph |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 12:02 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 02:04 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 02:01 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |