Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 53.7% vs Duchene 55.6% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horvat 64.8%
Defensive zone
Horvat 54.1%
Neutral zone
Horvat 52.4%
Result
Bo Horvat favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Horvat
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Horvat
Duchene
Last 9: Horvat 2-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Horvat
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Horvat
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
4
Horvat
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (1,071)
56.5% (566)
-3.0%
Power Play
56.3% (272)
61.3% (62)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (76)
22.2% (9)
+29.1%
On penalty kill, Horvat has a +29.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Horvat is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (888).
Horvat shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Horvat
Duchene
Home
54.2% (714)
56.6% (318)
Away
53.6% (705)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Horvat
Duchene
P1
53.5%
57.2%
P2
56.3%
55.1%
P3
53.5%
55.6%
OT
28.6%
81.3%
Final 5 min
52.3%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
53.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:25 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 11:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 15:03 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |