Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marchand wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 46.3% vs Duchene 54.9% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchand 79.5%
Defensive zone
Marchand 60.6%
Neutral zone
Marchand 70.3%
Result
Brad Marchand favored at 66.3%
66.3%
33.7%
Marchand
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Marchand
Duchene
Last 5: Marchand 1-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Marchand
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Marchand
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Marchand
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
40.5% (79)
55.4% (1,013)
-14.9%
Power Play
63.2% (19)
56.3% (192)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
41.2% (17)
-26.9%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Marchand is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (83).
Marchand shoots left. Duchene is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Home / Away
Marchand
Duchene
Home
44.3% (61)
56.2% (642)
Away
40.9% (44)
54.3% (580)
By Period
Marchand
Duchene
P1
51.8%
56.2%
P2
36.0%
56.5%
P3
30.4%
52.9%
OT
0.0%
64.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
42.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Brad Marchand |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 1 | 03:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2 | 08:18 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2 | 08:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |