Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Grant 51.4% vs Duchene 55.3% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 65.4%
Defensive zone
Grant 90.8%
Neutral zone
Grant 65.7%
Result
Derek Grant favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Grant
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Grant
Duchene
Last 6: Grant 1-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Grant
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Grant
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Grant
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Grant
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (480)
56.0% (579)
-4.3%
Power Play
63.0% (54)
59.3% (108)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (160)
25.0% (8)
+22.5%
On penalty kill, Grant has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Grant is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (428).
Grant shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Home / Away
Grant
Duchene
Home
54.8% (334)
54.9% (375)
Away
48.6% (360)
57.5% (320)
By Period
Grant
Duchene
P1
54.7%
58.3%
P2
46.1%
56.7%
P3
54.2%
53.1%
OT
33.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Grant
48.0%▼
57.5%
51.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2020 | 3 | 02:53 | Defensive | Derek Grant |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 1 | 08:50 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 3 | 11:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 2 | 16:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 22, 2019 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |