Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 48.8% vs Duchene 57.0% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 61.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 58.9%
Neutral zone
Carter 55.5%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 59.3%
59.3%
40.7%
Carter
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Carter
Duchene
Last 8: Carter 2-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
3
Carter
Duchene
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Carter
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carter
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (977)
56.5% (527)
-8.0%
Power Play
57.8% (128)
61.6% (185)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (123)
59.3% (27)
-18.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Carter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (836).
Carter shoots right. Duchene is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Home / Away
Carter
Duchene
Home
50.8% (597)
57.6% (403)
Away
46.8% (631)
58.3% (336)
By Period
Carter
Duchene
P1
48.8%
61.4%
P2
48.0%
58.5%
P3
49.4%
54.9%
OT
45.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
62.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
48.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2016 | 2 | 08:51 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2016 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2016 | 1 | 10:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 3 | 14:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 3 | 12:07 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 2 | 11:33 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 18, 2015 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |