Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 51.8% vs Duchene 61.5% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Carter 64.8%
Defensive zone
Carter 74.8%
Neutral zone
Carter 66.8%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Carter
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Carter
Duchene
Last 10: Carter 3-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Carter
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
5
Carter
Duchene
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
3
Carter
Duchene
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,137)
62.2% (802)
-8.8%
Power Play
48.7% (154)
67.3% (153)
-18.6%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (124)
59.4% (143)
-16.7%
On power play, Duchene has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (964).
Carter shoots right. Duchene is 65.4% vs right-shot opponents (407).
Home / Away
Carter
Duchene
Home
54.8% (753)
66.5% (555)
Away
48.6% (662)
58.6% (543)
By Period
Carter
Duchene
P1
52.8%
63.2%
P2
53.0%
59.6%
P3
49.9%
65.0%
OT
53.3%
71.4%
Final 5 min
49.9%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.9%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2017 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 3 | 17:58 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 1 | 18:05 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 1 | 02:43 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 1 | 14:21 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 1 | 00:47 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |