Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (74% H2H, 19 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Duchene 54.1% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 35-16 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 61.8%
Defensive zone
Carter 53.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 54.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Carter
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
35
(51 meetings)
16
35
Carter
Duchene
Last 10: Carter 2-8 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
14
Carter
Duchene
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
12
Carter
Duchene
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
9
Carter
Duchene
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
53.9% (10,396)
-0.6%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
56.9% (1,665)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
49.1% (468)
-2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Carter
Duchene
Home
54.7% (5,752)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Carter
Duchene
P1
53.6%
54.5%
P2
52.8%
54.5%
P3
53.1%
53.4%
OT
56.5%
56.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 13:55 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 13:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 3 | 14:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 01:02 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 3 | 17:58 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 1 | 18:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 1 | 18:05 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 21, 2017 | 1 | 02:43 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 1 | 14:21 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2017 | 1 | 00:47 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 27, 2016 | 2 | 08:51 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |