Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Toews wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 59.0% vs Duchene 54.2% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 64.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 74.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 66.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Toews
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Toews
Duchene
Last 10: Toews 3-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
7
Toews
Duchene
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Toews
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
57.3% (736)
56.8% (706)
+0.5%
Power Play
71.4% (133)
56.1% (57)
+15.3%
Penalty Kill
66.1% (62)
42.3% (130)
+23.8%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Toews is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Toews shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Home / Away
Toews
Duchene
Home
61.0% (479)
56.6% (488)
Away
58.8% (454)
52.3% (405)
By Period
Toews
Duchene
P1
61.3%
52.0%
P2
57.9%
53.7%
P3
59.3%
58.5%
OT
73.3%
46.7%
Final 5 min
60.1%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2013 | 3 | 10:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 1 | 18:46 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 1 | 10:28 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 3 | 13:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 3 | 07:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 3 | 05:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 2 | 05:05 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 1 | 16:19 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 1 | 06:28 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |