Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.6% vs 57.9%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.0% vs Duchene 57.0% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 63.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 58.3%
Neutral zone
Toews 50.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Toews
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Toews
Duchene
Last 7: Toews 3-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Toews
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
2
1
Toews
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Toews
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (1,200)
56.5% (527)
+1.7%
Power Play
62.8% (250)
61.6% (185)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (123)
59.3% (27)
-5.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Toews is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (943).
Toews shoots left. Duchene is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Toews
Duchene
Home
59.8% (805)
57.6% (403)
Away
57.3% (768)
58.3% (336)
By Period
Toews
Duchene
P1
60.2%
61.4%
P2
60.7%
58.5%
P3
55.9%
54.9%
OT
44.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
61.8%
62.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
58.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2016 | 2 | 07:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 15, 2015 | 3 | 17:09 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 15, 2015 | 3 | 12:58 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2015 | 2 | 10:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 15, 2015 | 2 | 02:36 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 15, 2015 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 15, 2015 | 1 | 11:41 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |