Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Domi on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Domi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Domi 50.2% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 57.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 59.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 58.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Duchene
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Duchene
Domi
Last 9: Duchene 5-4 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
1
2
Duchene
Domi
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Domi
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Domi
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
49.7% (499)
+3.3%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
56.8% (44)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
0.0% (1)
+43.8%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +43.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Domi is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Home / Away
Duchene
Domi
Home
54.9% (408)
51.0% (298)
Away
50.0% (432)
49.2% (246)
By Period
Duchene
Domi
P1
52.5%
54.8%
P2
51.7%
48.9%
P3
53.6%
46.4%
Final 5 min
53.3%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Domi
40.0%▼
50.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 14:54 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 10:04 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 00:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:31 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |