Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Domi on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Domi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Domi 48.8% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 19-17 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 66.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 67.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Duchene
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
17
(36 meetings)
19
17
Duchene
Domi
Last 10: Duchene 6-4 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
2
7
Duchene
Domi
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
3
Duchene
Domi
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
10
7
Duchene
Domi
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
48.1% (4,296)
+5.8%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
53.4% (633)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
48.8% (41)
+0.3%
On even strength, Duchene has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Domi is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,341).
Home / Away
Duchene
Domi
Home
55.6% (6,411)
49.7% (2,604)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
47.8% (2,366)
By Period
Duchene
Domi
P1
54.5%
48.7%
P2
54.5%
48.3%
P3
53.4%
49.8%
OT
56.3%
43.5%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 14:54 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 10:04 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | 00:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:31 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1 | 06:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 05:08 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 11:13 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 11:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 18:36 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 1 | 12:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 1 | 00:14 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |