Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Brown 54.6% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 83.0%
Defensive zone
Brown 76.0%
Neutral zone
Brown 51.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Duchene
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Duchene
Brown
Last 5: Duchene 3-2 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Brown
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
2
Duchene
Brown
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
56.5% (726)
-2.6%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
62.5% (8)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
47.8% (136)
+1.3%
On power play, Brown has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Brown is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (619).
Home / Away
Duchene
Brown
Home
55.6% (6,411)
57.4% (364)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
53.6% (506)
By Period
Duchene
Brown
P1
54.5%
51.4%
P2
54.5%
54.6%
P3
53.4%
58.8%
OT
56.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:26 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Patrick Brown |