Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 55.1%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 22 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Stastny 55.1% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 35-32 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 54.9%
Defensive zone
Stastny 51.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Duchene
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
35
(67 meetings)
32
35
Duchene
Stastny
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
15
7
Duchene
Stastny
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
8
13
Duchene
Stastny
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
9
15
Duchene
Stastny
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
54.6% (10,616)
-0.7%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
59.1% (1,994)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
52.9% (1,119)
-3.8%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Duchene
Stastny
Home
55.6% (6,411)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Duchene
Stastny
P1
54.5%
56.3%
P2
54.5%
55.4%
P3
53.4%
53.5%
OT
56.3%
62.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 11:41 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 17:28 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 11:16 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 06:22 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 03:57 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 15, 2019 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 15, 2019 | 2 | 06:52 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 15, 2019 | 2 | 01:05 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 15, 2019 | 1 | 18:13 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 15, 2019 | 1 | 17:49 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Oct 15, 2019 | 1 | 15:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 3 | 07:41 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 2 | 12:46 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 1 | 15:29 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 1 | 12:15 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 1 | 11:57 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 1 | 02:42 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |