Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Byfield 45.4% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 53.0%
Defensive zone
Byfield 79.9%
Neutral zone
Byfield 57.0%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 79.9%
20.1%
79.9%
Duchene
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Duchene
Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
0
2
Duchene
Byfield
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
46.5% (759)
+4.7%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
50.0% (58)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
35.1% (148)
-18.4%
On penalty kill, Byfield has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Byfield is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (637).
Home / Away
Duchene
Byfield
Home
51.6% (182)
46.2% (442)
Away
52.2% (201)
44.0% (523)
By Period
Duchene
Byfield
P1
49.6%
44.1%
P2
56.2%
43.5%
P3
48.6%
47.7%
OT
60.0%
39.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Byfield
66.0%▲
56.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:10 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 09:22 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |