Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Byfield shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.0% vs Byfield 42.7% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Byfield 55.3%
Defensive zone
Byfield 65.5%
Neutral zone
Byfield 61.9%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Duchene
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Duchene
Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
0
2
Duchene
Byfield
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (177)
43.5% (570)
+7.9%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
48.1% (52)
+26.9%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
31.9% (135)
-11.9%
On power play, Duchene has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Duchene is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (121).
Duchene shoots left. Byfield is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (525).
Home / Away
Duchene
Byfield
Home
48.8% (41)
42.7% (363)
Away
52.3% (149)
40.9% (394)
By Period
Duchene
Byfield
P1
47.6%
40.6%
P2
62.3%
39.5%
P3
46.2%
44.9%
OT
0.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
51.0%
41.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.6%
Byfield
56.0%▲
47.5%
41.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:10 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 09:22 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |