Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Byfield shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Byfield 44.6% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 87.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 75.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 79.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
Duchene
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Duchene
Byfield
Last 8: Duchene 6-2 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Byfield
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Byfield
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Byfield
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
44.5% (853)
+8.5%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
42.9% (21)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
38.2% (68)
+5.6%
On even strength, Duchene has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Byfield is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (629).
Home / Away
Duchene
Byfield
Home
54.9% (408)
43.8% (502)
Away
50.0% (432)
44.3% (440)
By Period
Duchene
Byfield
P1
52.5%
44.2%
P2
51.7%
43.0%
P3
53.6%
45.0%
OT
33.3%
46.2%
Final 5 min
53.3%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Byfield
56.0%▲
47.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:21 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 02:08 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 07:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 05:52 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 17:00 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |