Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 22 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Faksa shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Faksa 52.4% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 38-26 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 82.6%
Defensive zone
Faksa 73.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 54.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Duchene
Faksa
Head-to-Head Record
38
-
26
(64 meetings)
38
26
Duchene
Faksa
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Faksa
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
16
6
Duchene
Faksa
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Faksa
7
11
Duchene
Faksa
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
15
9
Duchene
Faksa
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Faksa
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
52.8% (6,681)
+1.1%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
57.7% (291)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
49.3% (1,372)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Faksa shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Faksa is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (5,193).
Home / Away
Duchene
Faksa
Home
55.6% (6,411)
52.9% (4,092)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
51.9% (4,252)
By Period
Duchene
Faksa
P1
54.5%
53.0%
P2
54.5%
52.5%
P3
53.4%
52.0%
OT
56.3%
45.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Faksa
54.0%▲
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:36 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 13:18 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 04:25 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 19:24 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 3 | 06:02 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 10:33 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 3 | 10:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 22, 2021 | 2 | 14:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Radek Faksa |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 04:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2020 | 1 | 00:25 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 1, 2020 | 2 | 18:52 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Jan 1, 2020 | 1 | 14:50 | Neutral | Radek Faksa |
| Jan 1, 2020 | 1 | 04:22 | Defensive | Radek Faksa |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |