Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Hartman 45.5% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 58.7%
Defensive zone
Hartman 58.8%
Neutral zone
Hartman 57.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Duchene
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Duchene
Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
2
Duchene
Hartman
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Hartman
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
44.8% (830)
+6.4%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
47.8% (92)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
37.5% (16)
-20.8%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Duchene shoots left. Hartman is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hartman
Home
51.6% (182)
45.0% (515)
Away
52.2% (201)
44.9% (423)
By Period
Duchene
Hartman
P1
49.6%
46.5%
P2
56.2%
39.9%
P3
48.6%
48.6%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:33 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |