Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Hartman 48.1% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 67.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 52.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 54.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Duchene
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Duchene
Hartman
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
4
Duchene
Hartman
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Hartman
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
2
Duchene
Hartman
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
48.1% (520)
+4.9%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
44.7% (47)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
47.8% (23)
-4.0%
On even strength, Duchene has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Duchene shoots left. Hartman is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hartman
Home
54.9% (408)
48.3% (360)
Away
50.0% (432)
47.0% (230)
By Period
Duchene
Hartman
P1
52.5%
48.5%
P2
51.7%
45.2%
P3
53.6%
49.6%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 05:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:48 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:28 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 13:52 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 18:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 13:29 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 1 | 11:29 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 11:24 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |