Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Hartman 47.3% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 74.4%
Defensive zone
Hartman 51.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 77.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Duchene
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Duchene
Hartman
Last 6: Duchene 4-2 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Hartman
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
1
Duchene
Hartman
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
47.1% (649)
+9.4%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
47.1% (68)
+14.2%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
45.2% (73)
-23.0%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Hartman is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (608).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hartman
Home
56.6% (318)
46.5% (361)
Away
56.4% (319)
47.3% (429)
By Period
Duchene
Hartman
P1
57.2%
45.1%
P2
55.1%
44.4%
P3
55.6%
50.9%
OT
81.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 1 | 19:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 1 | 10:38 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:57 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |