Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.0%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Duchene wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.0% vs Johansen 51.8% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 54.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 52.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 52.5%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Duchene
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
Duchene
Johansen
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
0
Duchene
Johansen
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
4
Duchene
Johansen
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,081)
51.6% (1,127)
+1.0%
Power Play
49.6% (119)
53.6% (267)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
51.6% (244)
-10.4%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Duchene is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (473).
Duchene shoots left. Johansen is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,067).
Home / Away
Duchene
Johansen
Home
54.9% (625)
55.0% (809)
Away
49.3% (592)
49.0% (829)
By Period
Duchene
Johansen
P1
52.7%
50.7%
P2
54.1%
54.4%
P3
49.5%
50.5%
OT
57.1%
64.7%
Final 5 min
46.1%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2015 | 3 | 10:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2015 | 1 | 14:15 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2015 | 1 | 02:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2015 | 1 | 01:54 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2015 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2015 | 3 | 16:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2015 | 3 | 16:19 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 4, 2015 | 3 | 05:23 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 4, 2015 | 3 | 03:08 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2015 | 2 | 12:49 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2015 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2015 | 2 | 10:23 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 4, 2015 | 1 | 15:20 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |