Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 53.4%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 34 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Johansen 53.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 49-47 in 96 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 52.4%
Defensive zone
Johansen 53.6%
Neutral zone
Johansen 51.6%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Duchene
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
49
-
47
(96 meetings)
49
47
Duchene
Johansen
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
20
14
Duchene
Johansen
34 total
Defensive Zone
Even
18
18
Duchene
Johansen
36 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
11
15
Duchene
Johansen
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
53.1% (11,017)
+0.8%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
56.2% (2,163)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
50.5% (978)
-1.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Johansen is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,788).
Home / Away
Duchene
Johansen
Home
55.6% (6,411)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Duchene
Johansen
P1
54.5%
53.2%
P2
54.5%
53.9%
P3
53.4%
52.8%
OT
56.3%
58.2%
Final 5 min
53.7%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:30 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 07:25 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 07:19 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 03:32 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 01:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 03:14 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 14:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 1 | 05:01 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 3 | 16:33 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 3 | 14:36 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 2 | 16:18 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 2 | 06:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 1 | 16:03 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 1 | 13:29 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 1 | 05:25 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 1 | 01:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |