Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 56.8%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 51.6%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 66.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Duchene
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Duchene
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Duchene
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
56.1% (342)
-4.9%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
53.3% (92)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
62.5% (8)
-45.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +45.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Duchene shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Duchene
Stamkos
Home
51.6% (182)
53.4% (208)
Away
52.2% (201)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Duchene
Stamkos
P1
49.6%
55.6%
P2
56.2%
52.8%
P3
48.6%
59.1%
OT
60.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.1%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 10:44 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |