Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.5% vs 56.0%). Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Stamkos 55.2% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 54.8%
Defensive zone
Duchene 53.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 52.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Duchene
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Duchene
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
55.9% (499)
+0.6%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
56.3% (126)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
58.3% (12)
-36.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +36.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Duchene
Stamkos
Home
56.6% (318)
55.3% (349)
Away
56.4% (319)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Duchene
Stamkos
P1
57.2%
57.0%
P2
55.1%
59.2%
P3
55.6%
51.5%
OT
81.3%
55.6%
Final 5 min
47.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |